The bottom line: without new smokers, there is no tobacco industry

Suppose all adult smokers switch from traditional tobacco to heated tobacco products tomorrow. Suppose heated tobacco products came out of the tap for free and not a single cigarette were ever made again. Even then, the tobacco industry would still have a problem.

That’s because its customers are getting older. And they’re dying. That’s the uncomfortable truth about an addictive product: revenue depends on a fixed group of users, and that group naturally shrinks over time. This industry doesn’t want to die out, so it always needs new users.

These new users aren’t adults who suddenly pick up a new habit. Almost everyone who smokes started as a child, teenager, or young adult. The industry has known this for decades. Internal documents openly referred to “replacement smokers”: young people who take the place of those who quit or die.

That’s why it’s so telling to look at who the target audience is for new products. Flavors, sleek designs, clever social media campaigns: the narrative is always that these are alternatives for adult smokers who can’t quit. But the business model demands more than that.

No matter what the industry says, every narrative about “harm reduction” and a “smoke-free future” ultimately boils down to the same question: who will replace the customers who quit or die?

The answer is simple: our children.